If you’re thinking about selling, here are some tips to help you get your house ready to go. Let’s connect so you have an expert to help make sure it shows well.

Are you thinking about selling your house? If so, today’s mortgage rates may be making you wonder if that’s the right decision. Some homeowners are reluctant to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate on their next home. If you’re worried about this too, know that even though rates are high right now, so is home equity. Here’s what you need to know. Bankrate explains exactly what equity is and how it grows: “Home equity is the portion of your home that you’ve paid off and own outright. It’s the difference between what the home is worth and how much is still owed on your mortgage. As your home’s value increases over the long term and you pay down the principal on the mortgage, your equity stake grows.” In other words, equity is how much your home is worth now, minus what you still owe on your home loan. How Much Equity Do Homeowners Have Now? Recently, your equity has been growing faster than you might think. To help contextualize just how much the average homeowner has, CoreLogic says: “. . . the average U.S. homeowner now has about $290,000 in equity.” That’s because, over the past few years, home prices went up significantly – and those rising prices helped your equity to accumulate faster than usual. While the market has started to normalize, there are still more people wanting to buy homes than there are homes available for sale. This high demand is causing home prices to go up again. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the Census, and ATTOM, a property data provider, nearly two-thirds (68.7%) of homeowners have either fully paid off their mortgages or have at least 50% equity (see chart below): That means nearly 70% of homeowners have a tremendous amount of equity right now. How Equity Helps with Your Affordability Concerns With today’s affordability challenges, your equity can make a big difference when you decide to move. After you sell your house, you can use the equity you've built up in your home to help you buy your next one. Here’s how: Be an all-cash buyer: If you've been living in your current home for a long time, you might have enough equity to buy a new house without having to take out a loan. If that's the case, you won't need to borrow any money or worry about mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) states: “These all-cash home buyers are happily avoiding the higher mortgage interest rates . . .” Make a larger down payment: Your equity could be used toward your next down payment. It might even be enough to let you put a larger amount down, so you won't have to borrow as much money so today’s rates become less of a sticking point. Experian explains: “Increasing your down payment lowers your principal loan amount and, consequently, your loan-to-value ratio, which could lead to a lower interest rate offer from your lender.” Bottom Line If you're thinking about moving, the equity you've built up can make a big difference, especially today. To find out how much equity you've got in your current house and how you can use it for your next home, let’s connect.

An important factor shaping today’s market is the number of homes for sale. And, if you’re considering whether or not to list your house, that’s one of the biggest advantages you have right now. When housing inventory is this low, your house will stand out, especially if it’s priced right. But there are some early signs that more listings are coming. According to the latest data, new listings (homeowners who just put their houses up for sale) are trending up. Here’s a look at why this is noteworthy and what it may mean for you. More Homes Are Coming onto the Market than Usual It’s well known that the busiest time in the housing market each year is the spring buying season. That’s why there’s a predictable increase in the volume of newly listed homes throughout the first half of the year. Sellers are anticipating this and ramping up for the months when buyers are most active. But, as the school year and the holidays approach, the market cools. It’s what’s expected. But here’s what’s surprising. Based on the latest data from Realtor.com, there’s an increase in the number of sellers listing their houses later this year than usual. A peak this late in the year isn’t typical. You can see both the normal seasonal trend and the unusual August in the graph below:As Realtor.com explains: “While inventory continues to be in short supply, August witnessed an unusual uptick in newly listed homes compared to July, hopefully signaling a return in seller activity heading toward the fall season . . .” While this is only one month of data, it’s unusual enough to note. It’s still too early to say for sure if this trend will continue, but it’s something you’ll want to stay ahead of if it does. What This Means for You If you’ve been putting off selling your house, now may be the sweet spot to make your move. That’s because, if this trend continues, you’ll have more competition the longer you wait. And if your neighbor puts their house up for sale too, it means you may have to share buyers’ attention with that other homeowner. If you sell now, you can beat your neighbors to the punch. But, even with more homes coming onto the market, the market is still well below normal supply levels. And, that inventory deficit isn’t going to be reversed overnight. The graph below helps put this into context, so you can see the opportunity you still have now:  Bottom Line Even though inventory is still low, you don’t want to wait for more competition to pop up in your neighborhood. You still have an incredible opportunity if you sell your house today. Let’s connect to explore the benefits of selling now before more homes come to the market.

One question that’s top of mind if you’re thinking about making a move today is: Why is it so hard to find a house to buy? And while it may be tempting to wait it out until you have more options, that’s probably not the best strategy. Here’s why. There aren’t enough homes available for sale, but that shortage isn’t just a today problem. It’s been a challenge for years. Let’s take a look at some of the long-term and short-term factors that have contributed to this limited supply. Underbuilding Is a Long-Standing Problem One of the big reasons inventory is low is because builders haven’t been building enough homes in recent years. The graph below shows new construction for single-family homes over the past five decades, including the long-term average for housing units completed: For 14 straight years, builders didn’t construct enough homes to meet the historical average (shown in red). That underbuilding created a significant inventory deficit. And while new home construction is back on track and meeting the historical average right now, the long-term inventory problem isn’t going to be solved overnight.  Today’s Mortgage Rates Create a Lock-In Effect There are also a few factors at play in today’s market adding to the inventory challenge. The first is the mortgage rate lock-in effect. Basically, some homeowners are reluctant to sell because of where mortgage rates are right now. They don’t want to move and take on a rate that’s higher than the one they have on their current home. The chart below helps illustrate just how many homeowners may find themselves in this situation: Those homeowners need to remember their needs may matter just as much as the financial aspects of their move. Misinformation in the Media Is Creating Unnecessary Fear Another thing that’s limiting inventory right now is the fear that’s been created by the media. You’ve likely seen the negative headlines calling for a housing crash, or the ones saying home prices would fall by 20%. While neither of those things happened, the stories may have dinged your confidence enough for you to think it’s better to hold off and wait for things to calm down. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says: “In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.” That’s further limiting inventory because people who would make a move otherwise now feel hesitant to do so. But the market isn’t doom and gloom, even if the headlines are. An agent can help you separate fact from fiction.  How This Impacts You If you’re wondering how today’s low inventory affects you, it depends on if you’re selling or buying a home, or both. For buyers: A limited number of homes for sale means you’ll want to seriously consider all of your options, including various areas and housing types. A skilled professional will help you explore all of what’s available and find the home that best fits your needs. They can even coach you through casting a broader net if you need to expand your search. For sellers: Today’s low inventory actually offers incredible benefits because your house will stand out. A real estate agent can walk you through why it’s especially worthwhile to sell with these conditions. And since many sellers are also buyers, that agent is also an essential resource to help you stay up to date on the latest homes available for sale in your area so you can find your next dream home.  Bottom Line The low supply of homes for sale isn’t a new challenge. There are a number of long-term and short-term factors leading to the current inventory deficit. If you’re looking to make a move, let’s connect. That way you’ll have an expert on your side to explain how this impacts you and what’s happening with housing inventory in our area.

  If you want to move, your equity can make a big difference right now. Let’s connect to see how much you have.  

Reaching retirement is a significant milestone in life, bringing with it a lot of change and new opportunities. As the door to this exciting chapter opens, one thing you may be considering is selling your house and finding a home better suited for your evolving needs. Fortunately, you may be in a better position to make a move than you realize. Here are a few reasons why. Consider How Long You’ve Been in Your Home From 1985 to 2009, the average length of time homeowners stayed in their homes was roughly six years. But according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), that number is higher today. Since 2010, the average home tenure is just over nine years (see graph below): This means many homeowners have been living in their houses even longer in recent years. When you live in a home for such a significant amount of time, it’s natural for you to experience changes in your life while you’re in that house. As those life changes and milestones happen, your needs may change. And if your current home no longer meets them, you may have better options waiting for you. Consider the Equity You’ve Gained And, if you’ve been in your home for more than a few years, you’ve likely built-up substantial equity that can fuel your next move. That’s because you gain equity as you pay down your loan and as home prices appreciate. And, the longer you’ve been in your home, the more you may have gained. Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) illustrates that point (see graph below):  While home prices vary by area, the national average shows the typical homeowner who’s been in their house for five years saw it increase in value by nearly 60%. And the average homeowner who’s owned their home for 30 years saw it almost triple in value over that time. Whether you’re looking to downsize, relocate to a dream destination, or move so you live closer to friends or loved ones, that equity can help. Whatever your home goals are, a trusted real estate agent can work with you to find the best option. They’ll help you sell your current house and guide you as you buy the home that’s right for you and your lifestyle today. Bottom Line As you plan for your retirement, let’s connect so we can find out how much equity you’ve built up over the years and plan how you can use it toward the purchase of a home that fits your changing needs.

  Some Highlights Last year, some housing experts projected a decline in home prices by the end of 2023. But that didn’t happen – inventory was just too low. While it’s normal for experts to re-forecast throughout the year, the good news for 2023 is that prices are no longer projected to decrease. Let’s connect so you know what’s happening with home values in our local area.   Sources   https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-dec-2022.pdf https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-aug-2023.pdf https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45801/display https://www.fanniemae.com/media/48726/display https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671900591113609216 (Morgan Stanley) https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671556169712672768 (AEI) https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ https://www.zillow.com/research/housing-market-challenges-32923/ https://ustoday.news/a-20-drop-in-house-prices-7-forecast-models-tend-to-crash-here-the-other-13-models-show-the-housing-market-in-2023/ (Wells Fargo) https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1686959362563092480 (Wells Fargo) https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1691799764466008217 (Goldman Sachs) https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-corelogic-sp-case-shiller-index-down-by-0-5-year-over-year-in-may-but-a-turning-point-may-be-ahead/ https://view.e.fanniemae.com/?qs=

  If you’re hoping to buy a home this year, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates. Since mortgage rates impact what you can afford when you take out a home loan – and affordability is a challenge today – it’s a good time to look at the big picture of where mortgage rates have been historically compared to where they are now. Beyond that, it’s important to understand their relationship with inflation for insights into where mortgage rates might go in the near future. Giving Context to the Sticker Shock Freddie Mac has been tracking the 30-year fixed mortgage rate since April of 1971. Every week, they release the results of their Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which averages mortgage application data from lenders across the country (see graph below): Looking at the right side of the graph, mortgage rates have increased significantly since the start of last year. But even with that rise, today’s rates are still below the 52-year average. While that historical perspective is good context, buyers have gotten used to mortgage rates between 3% and 5%, which is where they’ve been over the past 15 years. That’s important because it explains why the recent jump in rates might have you feeling sticker shock even though they’re close to their long-term average. While many buyers have adjusted to the elevated rates over the past year, a slightly lower rate would be a welcome sight. To determine if that’s a realistic possibility, it’s important to look at inflation. Where Could Mortgage Rates Go in the Future?  The Federal Reserve has been working hard to lower inflation since early 2022. That’s significant because, historically, there’s been a connection between inflation and mortgage rates (see graph below): This graph shows a pretty reliable relationship between inflation and mortgage rates. Looking at the left side of the graph, each time inflation moves significantly (shown in blue), mortgage rates follow suit shortly after (shown in green). The circled portion of the graph points out the most recent spike in inflation, with mortgage rates following closely behind. As inflation has moderated a bit this year, mortgage rates haven’t yet made a similar move. That means, if history is any guide, the market is waiting for mortgage rates to follow inflation and head back down. It’s impossible to accurately predict where mortgage rates will go for sure, but moderating inflation means mortgage rates going down in the near future would fit a well-established trend.  Bottom Line To understand where mortgage rates may be going, it’s helpful to look at where they’ve been in the past. There’s a clear connection between inflation and mortgage rates, and if that historical relationship holds true, the recent decline in inflation may mean good news for the future of mortgage rates and your homeownership goals.

Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong. While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the ‘unicorn’ years, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. If anything, prices were a lot more resilient than many people expected. Let's take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic. Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below): As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers. There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says: “One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.” A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s seasonality to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines. As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season. Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating. Bottom Line The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.

Even though activity in the housing market has slowed from the frenzy that was the ‘unicorn’ years, it’s still a seller’s market because the supply of homes for sale is so low. But what does that really mean for you? And why are conditions today so good if you want to sell your house? The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still astonishingly low. Housing inventory is measured by the number of available homes on the market. It’s also measured by months’ supply, meaning the number of months it would take to sell all those available homes based on current demand. In a balanced market, there’s usually about a six-month supply. Today, we have only about 3 months’ supply of homes at the current sales pace (see graph below):  As the visual shows, given the current inventory of homes, it’s still a seller's market. Today, we’re nowhere near what’s considered a balanced market. In fact, the current months’ supply is half of what’s typical of a normal market. That means there just aren’t enough homes to go around based on today’s buyer demand. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, says: “There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.” How Does Being in a Seller’s Market Benefit You? Sellers, these conditions give you a real edge. Right now, there are buyers who are ready, willing, and able to purchase a home. And, because there's a shortage of homes up for sale, the ones that do hit the market are like magnets for those buyers. If you work with a local real estate agent to list your house right now, in good condition, and at the right price, it could get a lot of attention. You might even end up with multiple offers. Bottom Line Today’s seller’s market sets you up with a big advantage when you sell your house. Because supply is so low, your house will be in the spotlight for motivated buyers who are craving more options. Let’s connect so you understand what’s happening in our local area as you get ready to enter the market.

  Have you ever wondered how inflation impacts the housing market? Believe it or not, they’re connected. Whenever there are changes to one, both are affected. Here’s a high-level overview of the connection between the two. The Relationship Between Housing Inflation and Overall Inflation Shelter inflation is the measure of price growth specific to housing. It comes from a survey of renters and homeowners that’s done by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The survey asks renters how much they’re paying in rent, and homeowners how much they’d rent their homes for, if they weren’t living in them. Much like overall inflation measures the cost of everyday items, shelter inflation measures the cost of housing. And for four consecutive months, based on that survey, shelter inflation has been coming down (see graph below): Why does this matter? Well, shelter inflation makes up about one-third of overall inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). So, when shelter inflation moves, it leads to noticeable moves in overall inflation. That means the recent dip in shelter inflation might be a sign that overall inflation could fall in the months ahead. That moderation would be a welcome sight for the Federal Reserve (the Fed). They’ve been working to get inflation under control since early 2022. While they’ve made some headway (it peaked at 8.9% in the middle of last year), they’re still trying to get to their 2% goal (the latest report is 3.3%).  Inflation and the Federal Funds Rate   What’s the Fed been doing to lower inflation? They’ve been increasing the Federal Funds Rate. That interest rate influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. When inflation climbed, the Fed responded by raising the Federal Funds Rate to keep the economy from overheating. The graph below shows the relationship between the two. Each time inflation (shown in the blue line) starts to climb, the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate (shown in the orange line) to try to get it back to their target of 2% (see below): The circled portion of the graph shows the most recent spike in inflation, the Fed’s actions to raise the Federal Funds Rate to fight that, and the moderation of inflation that happened in response to that hike. As inflation gets closer to the Fed’s current 2% goal, they may not need to raise the Federal Funds Rate much further. A Brighter Future for Mortgage Rates? So, what does all of this mean for you? While the actions coming out of the Fed don’t determine mortgage rates, they do have an impact. As Mortgage Professional America (MPA) explains: “. . . mortgage rates and inflation are connected, however indirectly. When inflation rises, mortgage rates rise to keep up with the value of the US dollar. When inflation drops, mortgage rates follow suit.” While no one can predict the future for mortgage rates, it’s encouraging to see the signs of moderating inflation in the economy.  Bottom Line Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or just stay informed about the housing market, let’s connect.

  Some Highlights Your equity grows as you pay down your home loan and as home prices increase. With home prices rising again, your equity is getting an extra boost. Almost half of homeowners are equity rich because they have at least 50% equity in their homes. If you’ve been in your home for a while, you might have gained a considerable amount of equity, too. Want to find out how much equity you have? Connect with a trusted real estate agent for a Professional Equity Assessment Report (PEAR).

The fall guides for buying or selling a home have arrived. Let’s connect so you can get the newest digital versions.  

Are you putting off selling your house because you’re worried no one’s buying because of where mortgage rates are? If so, know this: the latest data shows plenty of buyers are still out there, and they’re purchasing homes today. Here’s the data to prove it. The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of buyers touring homes. The graph below uses the latest numbers available and compares them to the same month in the last normal years to show just how active today’s buyers still are: As you can see, when June 2023 numbers are stacked alongside what’s typical for the housing market at this time of year, it's clear buyers are still active. And, they’re actually a lot more active than the norm. If you’re wondering how this could possibly be true, it’s because buyers are getting used to higher mortgage rates and accepting them as the new reality. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com, explains: “Interest rate hikes continue to further cut into buyers' purchasing power, although they appear to have adapted to the higher mortgage rate environment . . .” It’s simple. Buyers will always need to buy, and those who can afford to move at today’s rates are going to do so. The Key Takeaway for You While it’s true things have slowed down from the frenzy of the last couple of years, it doesn’t mean today’s market is at a standstill. The reality is: buyer traffic is still strong today. Even with today’s mortgage rates, plenty of buyers are still making their moves. So why delay your own move when there’s clearly a market for your house? Bottom Line Don’t put off your plans because you’re worried no one will buy your home. The opposite is true, and more buyers are more active than the norm. Let’s connect to get your house ready to sell, so it makes the best first impression possible on those eager buyers.

Even though you may feel reluctant to sell your house because you don’t want to take on a mortgage rate that’s higher than the one you have now, there’s more to consider. While the financial side of things does matter, your personal needs may actually matter just as much. As an article from Bankrate says: “Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal decision. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based, before putting your home on the market.” So, ask yourself this: Why did I want to move in the first place? Chances are your primary motivation wasn’t just financial in nature. Why you’re really thinking about selling likely has more to do with something changing in your life or a shift in what you need out of your house. Reasons Homeowners Still Need To Sell Today Let’s explore some of the most common reasons sellers are moving today. A recent article from Builder Online helps shed light on this. In this research, they identified the following categories: Marriage – If you just got married, you may find you either need more space than you currently have, or the two of you want to find a new place you picked out together. Divorce – If you’re getting separated or are divorcing your partner, chances are it’ll be difficult to live under the same roof. Selling the place you have, so you can own get your own spot, may be necessary. Births – If your household is growing, you may need more square footage, including more bedrooms. If you’re running out of room for everyone, you may not be able to wait to move. Deaths – If you’ve recently lost a loved one, it can be hard to spend time in that home. You may need to move for financial reasons or because you no longer need all the space. Retirement – If you’re in the process of retiring, or you just did, you may be looking to downsize to cut costs, relocate to be closer to loved ones, or move to a dream location. In this new phase of life, your current home may not be able to deliver what you need.  You may find you share one of these top motivators. If any of these resonate with you, it may be time to move so you can find a house better suited to your changing needs. A survey from Realtor.com finds other sellers are in the same boat. It says, 1 in 4 sellers are choosing to move for personal reasons, even with current mortgage rates: “. . . more than half of seller-buyers (56%) who are planning to sell in the next 12 months said they are waiting for rates to come down, while 25% need to sell soon for personal reasons.” If you need to sell now because something in your own life has changed, don’t let rates hold you back from what you want. You have options to help make that move possible. You can use the equity you already have in your current home toward your next purchase. And with how much equity homeowners have right now, you may be able to finance less than you’d expect or pay all cash to avoid borrowing at all. Bottom Line When you're ready to prioritize your changing needs, let’s connect. You need an expert on your side to help you list your house and find a home that delivers everything you're looking for.

Some Highlights There are only about half the number of homes for sale compared to the last normal years in the market. That means buyers don’t have enough options right now. So, if you work with an agent to list your house, it should be in the spotlight. If you're thinking of selling, let’s connect so your house can stand out while there’s such a shortage of supply and buyers are craving more options. 

  There’s been talk about a recession for quite a while now. But the economy has been remarkably resilient. Why? One reason is employment and wages have stayed strong. Let’s look at the latest information on each one and why both are good news if you’re thinking about selling your house. More Jobs Are Being Created Instead of facing the job losses typical of any recession, the economy has been growing and adding jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 187,000 jobs were created in July, which is up from the 185,000 created in June. That means more people are finding work. In fact, so many jobs are being added that the unemployment rate is far lower than the long-term average of 5.7% (see graph below): A low unemployment rate means that most people who want to work are finding jobs. When people have jobs, they have steady incomes – and that can help set them up to consider homeownership. People Are Making More Money And data also shows hourly earnings have been going up pretty steadily over the past few years (see graph below): When wages rise, people have more money that they could save or use toward buying a home. This increase in income helps offset some of the affordability challenges in the housing market today. Affordability depends on three main factors: wages, home prices, and mortgage rates. With higher home prices and mortgage rates right now, Builder Online summarizes how growing wages can help: “The housing market has been a beneficiary of the strong economy and labor market. Many of those employed have saved money over the past few years and used those funds toward a down payment on a home.” If you’re thinking about selling your house, a strong job market, growing wages, and the resulting buyer demand is fantastic news. It means there’s a larger pool of potential buyers out there who are in a position to pursue their dreams of homeownership. Bottom Line With more jobs and rising wages creating eager buyers, there’s a lot going in your favor. Let’s connect so you have someone who can guide you through the process of selling your house, from setting the right price to getting your home ready to show.

  The housing market continues to shift and change, and in a fast-moving landscape like we’re in right now, it’s more important than ever to have a trusted real estate agent on your side. Whether you’re buying your first home or selling once again, it’s mission critical to work with an expert who can guide you through each unique step of the process.  The reality is, that not all agents operate the same way. To truly make a powerful and confident decision as you buy or sell a home, you need a real estate expert who uses their knowledge of what’s really happening with home prices, housing supply, industry projections, and more to give you the best possible advice. Someone who can provide clarity and trust like that is essential to your success. Jay Thompson, Real Estate Industry Consultant, explains: “Housing market headlines are everywhere. Many are quite sensational, ending with exclamation points or predicting impending doom for the industry. Clickbait, the sensationalizing of headlines and content, has been an issue since the dawn of the internet, and housing news is not immune to it.” Unfortunately, when information in the media isn’t clear, it can generate a lot of fear and uncertainty for consumers. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says: “In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.” But it doesn’t have to be that way. Buying a home is a big decision, and it should be one you feel confident making. You can lean on an expert to help you separate fact from fiction and get the answers you need. The right agent can assist you in figuring out what’s going on at the national level and in your local area. They can debunk headlines using data you can trust. Experts have in-depth knowledge of the industry and can provide context, so you know how current trends compare to the normal ebbs and flows in the housing market, historical data, and more. Then, to make sure you have the full picture, an agent can tell you if your local area is following the national trend or if they’re seeing something different in your market. Together, you can use all that information to make the best possible decision. After all, making a move is a potentially life-changing milestone. It should be something you feel ready for and excited about. And that’s where a trusted expert comes in. Bottom Line If you want sound advice and trusted information about our local housing market, let’s connect.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is set to release its most recent Existing Home Sales (EHS) report tomorrow. This monthly release provides information on the volume of sales and price trends for homes that have previously been owned. In the upcoming release, it’ll likely say home prices are down. This may seem a bit confusing, especially if you’ve been following along and reading the blogs saying home prices have hit the bottom and have since rebounded. So, why would this say home prices are falling when so many other price reports say they’re going back up? It all depends on the methodology of each one. NAR reports on the median home sales price, while some other sources use repeat sales prices. Here’s how those approaches differ. The Center for Real Estate Studies at Wichita State University explains median sales prices like this: “The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less . . . For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.” Investopedia helps define what a repeat sales approach means: “Repeat-sales methods calculate changes in home prices based on sales of the same property, thereby avoiding the problem of trying to account for price differences in homes with varying characteristics.” The Challenge with the Median Home Sales Price Today As the quotes above say, the approaches can tell different stories. That’s why median home sales price data (like EHS) may say prices are down, even though the vast majority of the repeat sales reports show prices are appreciating again. Bill McBride, Author of the Calculated Risk blog, sums the difference up like this: “Median prices are distorted by the mix and repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices.” To drive this point home, here’s a simple explanation of median value (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median value (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median value is now five cents. In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change. That’s why using the median home sales price as a gauge of what’s happening with home values may be confusing right now. Most buyers look at home prices as a starting point to determine if they match their budgets. But most people buy homes based on the monthly mortgage payment they can afford, not just the price of the house. When mortgage rates are higher, you may have to buy a less expensive home to keep your monthly housing expense affordable. That’s why a greater number of ‘less-expensive’ houses are selling right now – and that’s causing the median home sales price to decline. But that doesn’t mean any single house lost value.  When you see the stories in the media that prices are falling later this week, remember the coins. Just because the median home sales price changes, it doesn’t mean home prices are falling. What it means is the mix of homes being sold is being impacted by affordability and current mortgage rates. Bottom Line For a more in-depth understanding of home price trends and reports, let’s connect.

Some Highlights With ongoing high inflation pushing up everyday costs, some people are worried that'll create a flood of foreclosures. Here's why that's unlikely. Fewer people are seriously behind on mortgage payments right now. If foreclosures were going to rise a lot, more people would need to be late on their payments. Since most are paying on time, a wave isn’t coming. If you're concerned about a flood of foreclosures, the data shows that's not likely.